Scrap & Recycle

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Trade & Pricing

Macro pricing dynamics, futures, exports, and what moves the per-pound number.

Trade flows and pricing dynamics in scrap

Page brief. Target keyword: scrap metal trade and pricing. Audience: trade readers, analysts, journalists, and procurement teams who need the macro picture. Funnel stage: awareness. The page should answer: what futures markets, exchanges, and macro forces actually move per-pound payouts at the yard level?

The "scrap price" most sellers quote starts as a futures-market settlement — COMEX for copper, LME for most other base metals, AMM benchmarks for ferrous. From there, a chain of discounts (location, grade, processing, freight) gets it to the price posted at a yard. This category covers that chain from top to bottom and the macro forces that shake it.

What this category covers

  • Futures and benchmarks — COMEX, LME, SHFE, AMM
  • Spot vs. paid — the discount stack from exchange settlement to yard payout
  • Export demand — how international flows reshape U.S. yard prices
  • Macro drivers — energy, autos, construction, and the China factor

Benchmarks for the major scrap metals

MetalPrimary benchmarkSecondaryWhere to watch live
CopperCOMEX (HG=F)LME copperCopper price
AluminumLME aluminumCOMEX (ALI=F)Aluminum price
BrassDerived (Cu × ~0.62 + Zn)None liquidBrass price
StainlessLME nickel + chrome surchargesNone spotStainless steel price
Carbon scrap (ferrous)AMM busheling, HMS, shreddedTurkish import indexNone liquid; AMM weekly
LeadLME leadNoneNone on this site (yet)

The discount stack — exchange to yard

Roughly: a copper-scrap seller takes home a fraction of the COMEX number after each step strips margin. Placeholder structure:

  1. Exchange settlement — COMEX/LME headline price
  2. Refiner premium / discount — what a rod producer or smelter pays vs. exchange
  3. Mill / processor margin — what a regional processor charges the mill
  4. Yard margin — what the local yard charges the regional processor
  5. Grade discount — quality-based markdown vs. the "clean" reference grade
  6. Freight, weight tolerance, and contamination

For the seller-side view of the same chain, see Selling Guide → Pricing.

Macro drivers that move the trade

  • Energy prices — directly hit primary aluminum and copper smelting; secondary (recycled) production looks better when energy is expensive
  • Auto build rates — every new vehicle is roughly 25–30% scrap-derived metal; auto demand maps to flat-rolled, aluminum sheet, and EV-battery copper
  • Construction starts — drives rebar, structural, and HVAC copper demand
  • Mill capacity utilization — AISI weekly utilization data signals mill scrap appetite
  • China policy — National Sword reshaped non-ferrous flows; subsequent shifts continue to ripple
  • Freight markets — Baltic Dry Index for ferrous export; container rates for non-ferrous
  • Currency — strong dollar compresses U.S. export competitiveness
  • Sanctions and tariffs — Russia, Iran, and bilateral trade actions

Topic ideas / outline

  • How a futures-market move propagates to a yard price sheet (with timing — same day, next day, weekly)
  • Reading AISI capacity utilization charts to predict ferrous demand
  • The Turkish ferrous import market as a U.S. East Coast price anchor
  • Why brass price is mostly a copper-and-zinc derivative
  • Nickel cycle and the stainless 304/316 spread
  • Crack spreads in aluminum — primary vs. secondary economics
  • Backwardation and contango as scrap-supply signals

Frequently asked questions

Why doesn't my yard pay COMEX copper?

Because COMEX is a clean-cathode reference price. By the time copper is graded as #2 with paint and oxidation, it's been discounted multiple times for grade and processing. A yard payout of 60–75% of COMEX on #2 copper is normal.

Is there a futures market for ferrous scrap?

CME has a Midwest Busheling futures contract; liquidity is modest but growing. AMM weekly benchmarks are still the de facto reference for most U.S. ferrous trades.

How do tariffs affect scrap?

When the U.S. raises tariffs on imported steel, domestic mill demand rises, lifting domestic scrap demand and prices. The reverse — tariffs on U.S. scrap exports — would lower domestic scrap prices.

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