Tariffs & trade
The trade-policy levers that move U.S. scrap pricing — Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, China duties on copper and aluminum scrap, USMCA flows, anti-dumping investigations, and the handful of countries (Turkey, India, Mexico, Vietnam) that absorb the bulk of U.S. scrap exports.
What this category covers
- Section 232 — U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, exemption renewals, downstream effects
- China policy — National Sword aftermath, current duty schedules, Belt-and-Road shifts
- USMCA / Mexico — cross-border scrap flows, peso-driven volume swings
- Export controls — critical-minerals lists, Treasury OFAC actions
- Anti-dumping cases — ITC petitions and final determinations affecting steel, aluminum
- Bilateral and multilateral — EU CBAM (carbon border adjustment), India duty changes, Turkey demand
Why tariffs and trade matter to scrap pricing
Domestic scrap pricing depends on net domestic mill demand, which moves with import competition. When the U.S. raises tariffs on imported steel, domestic mill utilization rises, lifting domestic scrap demand and per-pound payouts. The reverse holds: if the U.S. were to tariff its own scrap exports, domestic prices would fall as supply backed up.
Roughly one-fifth to one-third of U.S. ferrous scrap leaves the country in a typical year, with the export share rising in cycles when domestic mill demand softens. Non-ferrous exports (copper, aluminum, brass) tilt toward Asia. Both flow streams are sensitive to policy.
Top U.S. scrap export destinations (historical, ferrous + non-ferrous)
| Destination | Why it matters | Recent dynamic |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Largest single ferrous-scrap importer | Demand is the East Coast price anchor |
| Mexico | Major USMCA flow | EAF capacity additions raising demand |
| India | Rising ferrous and non-ferrous buyer | Duty changes affect pricing |
| Vietnam | Aluminum and copper scrap | China-substitution destination |
| Taiwan | Ferrous + non-ferrous | Cyclical EAF demand |
| Canada | USMCA, cross-border | Mostly mill-bound |
Frequently asked questions
How quickly does a tariff change show up in yard prices?
Mill-bound scrap repricing usually takes weeks; export-bound scrap can reprice within days at a coastal port.
Where does export-volume data come from?
U.S. Census trade data (released monthly with a one-month lag) is the primary source. AMM and Bureau of International Recycling reports add color.
Are anti-dumping cases relevant for scrap?
Indirectly. Most cases target finished products (rebar, hot-rolled coil), but they shift mill demand for scrap, which moves yard prices.
Related
- News hub — all news categories
- Industry Guide → Trade & Pricing — reference material on trade dynamics
- News → Mills & Buyers — buy-side coverage that ties to trade flows